Sunday, February 20, 2011

Do Push Your Luck

                Anyone who gambles understands the concept of hot and cold streaks.  When gambling on games such as blackjack, we often get an intuitive feeling that the cards are going to fall our way.  When this happens, good gamblers take advantage of the opportunity and start doubling or tripling their bets.  Conversely, we often get the opposite feeling that the table has gone “cold” and start betting less or leave the table completely.
                Life works in a similar fashion.  When things start going our way, we need to seize the opportunity and start being bold and aggressive in all aspects of our lives.  Good things tend to come in groups – a “hot streak” can permeate every phase of our existence.  When things start going poorly, we need to stop, quit being bold and aggressive, and re-analyze the various courses of action in our lives.  Things have gone “cold.” 
                Slow and steady does not win the race of life.  Gamblers who bet the same amount of money regardless of the situation almost never win; they just slowly lose their money little by little.  In life, we must be willing to go out of our comfort zone and try new things when it “feels” right. 
                Interestingly, long-term balance in life is not found in consistently neutral behavior.  Balance is found through the yin and yang of boldness when things are going well and being able to pull back and reanalyze when necessary.  Those who are consistently betting high and trying to ride out every hot streak are doomed to fail.  But those who always play it safe will never actually achieve high goals.  

3 comments:

  1. Mikey, I disagree here: RadioLab recently debunked the idea of a hot streak:
    http://www.radiolab.org/2009/jun/15/

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  2. In activities such as blackjack or 3-point shooting, a long-run statistical analysis will claim there are no hot-streaks. A bell curve can be used to counteract every seeming hot streak. A statistician would argue that there statistically has to be the appearance of hot streaks, but it is merely probability playing itself out.

    The problem with this is two-fold: (1) Do we have the ability to "intuit" hot-streaks? By intuit, I do not mean some sort of abstract superstition. I'm defining "inutit" as the ability of our subconscious minds to be aware of a number of factors that we can't consciously intellectualize. (2) In terms of philosophy of life, hot streaks in our everyday life will give us a certain perspective and attitude (confidence) that will make it more likely for positive results to take place.

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  3. M,

    You nailed it. That's why most sports game plans and business plans fail - there's not enough room to improvise.

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